Safety performance functions to predict separation minima infringements in en-route airspace

Purpose The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework characterise the safety air routes, in terms separation minima infringements (SMIs) between en-route aircraft, based on definition models known as performance functions. Design/methodology/approach Techniques with high predictive capability were selected that enable both expert knowledge and data be harnessed: Bayesian networks. It was necessary conceptual integrates currently available causality precursors SMIs hindsight derived from analysis type available. To translate into set causal subnets, concepts traffic management (ATM) barrier model event trees have been incorporated. Findings combines analytics insights, well capability, answer question how airspace are produced what their frequency occurrence will be. main outputs network predicted probability success for ATM barriers distribution vertical horizontal an aircraft its closest point approach. Originality/value contribution work that, by virtue calculation capacity obtained, can used draw conclusions about impact modification traffic, or operational conditions, would effectiveness final distributions distance CPA, thereby estimating SMI.